曼联小子投资日记（37）：明年计划的落实

十多年没有上网更新部落格，其中一个主要的原因就是因为工作忙了许，不会无论日子多忙，只要一有时间，我都会更新这个部落格，不会让大家失望。

之前有提到我希望能够在明年获得一万两千令吉的被动收入，作为试验退休计划的部份努力。

这落实这个计划，给自己的组合都下了一些目标：
１：FSL TRUST，每季固定派息的公司，希望明年每季至少派处一千令吉的股息，让我拥有四千令吉的被动收入。

２：RICKMERS，原本也希望如FST TRUST般，每季派出至少一千令吉的股息，不过从过去两季的派息情况看来，要RICKMERS一年派出四千令吉的股息是有点强人所难了，所以这一点就让我头痛了好几天。

３：从现在到未来一年购买的新股：在接下来的一年时间内，新股还会是我的主力股，目前已经选择了FRASERCOMM作为其中一个购买目标，未来还会继续买其他的新REIT，同样也希望能够获得四千令吉的被动收入。

只要上述的三个组合都达到彼此的目标，那我2010年的被动收入目标就可实现。

目前要特别留意RICKMERS，希望能够在2010里有个新开始，恢复其过去的派息政策，以及研究其他也会派高息的REIT及新股，希望能够实现2010年里的理财目标。

s-reit

Time to be selective


• 2Q09 results in line or at higher end of estimates
• Outlook stabilizing, sector recapitalization largely over
• Focus shifting to acquisition opportunities
• Top picks include CDL HT, ART, FCT, Suntec, MLT


Results generally in line. Sreits continued to put on a good showing in 2Q09, with yoy revenue, NPI and
distribution income growth of 9.2%, 11.7% and 8.2% respectively. On a qoq basis, revenue remained flat while
NPI and distribution income remained in positive territory. The key driver to this set of better results was the ability of retail and office landlords to retain high occupancies despite falling rents as well as better cost management; while hospitality players were able to partially offset a weaker topline with more prudent expense control measures.

Outlook stabilizing. Outlook for retail landlords appear to be stabilizing amid a moderated GDP projection and improving, but still lower yoy, retail sales. FY09 income had been largely secured with only a small quantum of renewals left for the rest of 2009. For office landlords, rentals are expected to be renewed positively in 2009, although negative reversions are expected to start kicking in from 2010 on weak supply/demand fundamentals. Hospitality landlords expect a better 2H09 vs 1H09 with improved forward booking patterns.

Sector has been substantially recapitalized, focus moving to acquisition opportunities. Sreit sector gearing
has declined to 31% with the $3.7b of capital raisings issued YTD. At this point, we believe any further capital raising exercises would be opportunistic or to fund new acquisitions given the current much lower cost of capital. In addition, the credit environment is starting to ease with strong liquidity flows and declining corporate credit spreads. We believe that Sreits that are likely to be better placed to benefit from acquisition growth as driver, would be those with sponsorbacking as well as Sreits in the industrial segment.

Top picks. Sreit sector is currently yielding a weighted average 7.5% on our FY10 estimates and trading at 0.76x P/bk NAV. Within the sector our top picks would be those with near term catalysts such as CDL HT and ART, which are key beneficiaries of the IRs and is projected to experience a recovery in earnings on the back of a better tourism outlook. We continue to favour retail landlords such as FCT for its suburban retail exposure and strong asset injection pipeline as well as Suntec on valuation grounds. Amongst industrial players, we prefer MLT for its higher than average yield of 9.4% and attractive P/NAV multiples.

REIT-PHILIP(RESULT REVIEW)

From the recently concluded financial results for the quarter ended 30th June 2009 (except Saizen REIT which is announcing on 27 August 2009), we observed that on a year-on-year basis, out of the 18 REITs that have announced their results, twelve reported revenue growth, one REIT reported flat revenue growth while five REITs reported negative revenue growth. Accordingly, nine REITs registered DPU growth while the other half have DPU erosion. A closer observation reveals that the hospitality sector fare the worst with both Ascott REIT and CDL Hospitality REIT recording decrease in gross revenue as well as lower DPU. For industrial sector, all four industrial REITs recorded lower DPU although only MacarthurCook Industrial REIT recorded lower gross revenue. The office and retail sectors prove to be more resilient with most of the REITs reporting higher gross revenue as well as DPU. The most stable sector continues to be healthcare.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, eight REITs reported revenue growth, one REIT reported flat revenue growth while nine REITs reported negative revenue growth. Accordingly, eleven REITs have DPU growth while six have DPU erosion and one with constant DPU.

The sectoral performance came as no surprise to us as we have long espoused the same order of revenue stability. The hospitality sector shows the greatest revenue volatility because revenue is sourced from direct visitor stays and these are mainly short term in nature compared to the tenant leases of the other sectors which are longer term and have locked-in rates. The industrial sector REITs have stepped-up rent escalation while the office sector REITs are still enjoying positive rental reversion from expiring leases. However from the quarter-on-quarter performance, we can see that the gross revenue for the industrial, office and retail sectors have all declined compared to mostly increases for the year-on-year performance. This may indicate higher vacancies or lower reversionary rents. While the hospitality REITs scored the worst performance on year-on-year basis, the quarter-on-quarter results provide some degree of respite. Ascott REIT has turned in a revenue growth and CDLH Trust recorded a much lower percentage of revenue decline. This could indicate that the tourist arrivals are picking up and we believe the hospitality sector would be the first sector to show signs of a recovering economy.

s-reit

Trusts' resilience boosts Reit indexBetter than expected results from Reits for Q2, revised GDP forecasts lead investors to turn positive on outlookINVESTORS are heaving a sigh of relief - and putting some money back into the stock market - following better-than-expected results from some real estate investment trusts (Reits).
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index has risen by almost 4 per cent on heavier trading volume since Reits started posting results a week ago. It closed at 494.82 yesterday.Generally, results released so far 'are either in line, if not slightly above' expectations, said DBS Vickers analyst Lock Mun Yee.Despite concerns about falling rents and occupancies in the office sector for instance, CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) and K-Reit Asia have managed to post year-on-year increases in distributable income and distribution per unit (DPU) for their latest financial quarter.CCT's operating results exceeded the expectations of OCBC Investment Research analysts Meenal Kumar and Foo Sze Ming. It was 'able to achieve new rents 45 per cent higher than previously signed rents, despite the 17.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter decline in Grade A office rent in 2Q 2009'.
Some retail Reits also displayed resilience amid the recession. Frasers Centrepoint Trust, which manages a portfolio of suburban malls, achieved a slightly higher DPU for the last financial quarter compared with a year ago. And considering how the hospitality industry has been hit by the downturn and the spread of H1N1 flu, the year-on-year fall in Ascott Residence Trust's DPU in the latest quarter did not surprise many.
In fact, the market could have been comforted by the trust manager's observations - that the sector is showing signs of stabilisation. Ascott Reit's unit price has gained more than 9 per cent since results were released last Thursday morning.Of course, investors' outlook could have improved even before they got a glimpse of the Reits' results.
The government recently revised its GDP forecast upwards and stock markets have been enjoying a long rally. Ms Kumar and Mr Foo believe that 'the price performance is more a function of outlook rather than Q2 performance'. Looking back further, the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index breached the 400-point mark in as early as May, and has risen by more than 16 per cent since.While market forecasts have become rosier, a robust recovery has yet to take shape and investors could remain jumpy.Ms Kumar and Mr Foo advise investors to continue paying attention to Reits' balance sheets - the risk of falling asset values still exists and that could increase gearing levels. DBS Vickers' Ms Lock also said that Reits' operational strength will come into focus, as they try to maintain earnings under 'moderated economic conditions'.

新加坡房产信托的财务报告

rickmers及FSL TRUST的评估

在网上看到ＵＯＢＫＨ对上述两间公司做出的研究，在这里记录一下。

估价方法改变为P /b方式来评估为三个在新加坡上市的航运信托，即第一船舶租赁信托（ FSLT ） ，太平洋航运信托（ pst ）和瑞克麦斯航运（rickmers） ，由现金流量为P /Ｂ，这是常用方法估价航运股的方式。

我们所提出合理的价格及建议没有改变。我们认为的P /b方法将更好地反映和适应不断变化的风险，为降低投资风险，并在航运相信解决其资产负债表上的障碍后，放松信贷和复苏在船舶的价格。航运部门（如代理的集装箱航运股票）交易通常在0.5x P / B进行了周期性低谷和2.5 3.0x在周期性顶点。

FSLT 。我们对这间鹟的价格从新币$ 0.50提高至新币$ 0.64，这是基于0.8倍2010年P / B的集装箱航运业，因为FSLT的净负债是138 ％，而类似的相关公司的杠杆比率为143 ％ 。 FSLT的建议是保持。

RICKMERS。我们还提高这间鹟平的价格从新币$ 0.44提高至新币$ 0.76，这是基于降低2010年P /B是0.4x ，略低于美国同行DanaosP /B0.5x ，因为这间公司拥有非常高的净负债比率，即4.0 x承担债务融资相等于7亿美元，而在2010年资本支出有关购买四个货柜以供出租予Maersk。虽然我们的公平的价格评估是24 ％以上它当前的股票价格，我们维持“持有”这间公司的股份，这是基于其7亿美元的资金没有着落，而在2010年资本支出。我们认为这间公司必须设法解决这个融资的障碍。

英文版资料

分享两个新加坡ＲＥＩＴ的部落格

今天发现两个讨论新加坡ＲＥＩＴ的部落格，虽然都是以英语来讨论的，不过还是放上来与大家一起分享。

迟些可能会把部份文章翻译成华语，作为收藏及研究的用途。

Singapore REITs
http://reitdata.blogspot.com/
http://sreit.blogspot.com/

希望大家都能够从中受惠。

新加坡的房产信托（REIT）的公司资料

根據星期五(12.06.09)閉市時的股價來計算。

Starhill Gbl 升禧环球信托（P4OU）
周息率：10.1%，本比益：--，闭市价：新币0.71，净资产 : 新币1.43。
08年10月，杨忠礼机构以$285m收购26%公司股及50%佳盛信托管理控股，因而获得公司控股权。公司将改称为升喜全球产托。08年8月，通过3家外国银行的银团协议，为总值$220m的贷款再融资。20/09/05上市，每股$0.98。1Q09营业额提高。毛收入增加由于新加坡的新租约和续约的租金均提高，及仁和春天棕北产业带来的收入增加。

CapitaComm 嘉康信托（C61U）
周息率：11.1%，本比益：3.8，闭市价：新币0.91，净资产 : 新币2.94。
业务:办公楼(57.2%)，多用途发展(38%)，停车场(4.8%)。1Q09盈利提高，因营业额上升，后者由于租金收入增加及收购乔治街1号和混合型大厦Wilkie Edge。办公楼租金将在09年下降，因此公司将专注于维持高租用率。

CapitaMall 嘉茂商产信托(C38U)
周息率：10.0%，本比益：4.3，闭市价：新币1.43，净资产 : 新币2.44。
以新加坡为基地的房地产投资信托，投资于购物中心。09年2月，宣布以10配9发行附加股来集资$1.23b，后者将被用来偿还于09年到期的$956.2m贷款及其他计划中的资产提升举措。将专注于资本和组合管理，以便维持自然增长及执行资产翻新。产业有：淡滨尼广场、第8站、IMM、三巴旺购物中心、福南数码生活广场及狮城大厦等。1Q09营业额飙升11.1%，因收购了新产业。

SuntecReit 新达信托(T82U)
周息率：12.9%，本比益：--，闭市价：新币0.975，净资产 : 新币2.001。
房地产投资信托。产业包括：新达办公大厦，新达城广场、柏丽广场和赞美。1Q09盈利上升，因收入增加和财务成本减低。办公楼和零售空间的租金均调高。公司预期零售空间的前景保持平稳，但办公楼租金则将面对日益增加的挑战。截至31/03/09，公司的办公楼组合取得97.4%租用率。

SaizenREIT 最善房产信托(DZ8U)
周息率：40.5%，本比益：--，闭市价：新币0.135，净资产 : 新币0.85。
一个投资日本住宅产业的房地产投资信托。由于经济局势日益恶化，公司并没有派发股息，以保留流动资金和现金资源。日本的短期经济前景不明朗。09年4月，公司表示，有必要发行附加股来避免再融资风险。将使用发行附加股所获收益、手头上的现金和过渡性短期贷款来偿还6个商业抵押担保证券贷款(于2009/10年满期)中的5个。

Cambridge 剑桥工业信托(J91U)
周息率：16.7%，本比益：8.6，闭市价：新币0.36，净资产 : 新币0.73。
为投资于主要用于工业用途的房地产资产而设的房产投资信托。25/07/06上市，每股$0.68。08年7月，公司将成为符合回教教法的房地产投资信托，以受惠于日益增大的中东资本市场。1Q09营业额提高4.2%，因收购新产业、仓存公司C&P Asia Warehousing的翻新工程在1H08完工及21个产业的租金上调(08年7月起)。

CDL HTrust 城市酒店信托(J85)
周息率：13.9%，本比益：--，闭市价：新币0.765，净资产 : 新币1.39。
09年4月，取得总值$350m的新银行融通，以便在09年7月为$273m的债务再融资。在至31/12/08的年度，负债比率为偏低的18.2%，稳健的营运现金流量为$102.8m。截至31/12/08，共拥有2,806间酒店客房。公司在新加坡的酒店于08年度取得可观的每客房平均收入增长。把派息率减至2H08须纳税收入的90%。公司是钉住的一组，包含CDL酒店服务产业信托(H-REIT)和CDL商业信托(HBT)。1Q09营业额和盈利均下跌。每客房平均收入由1Q08的$208降至1Q09的$150，主要因观光、会展和商务旅游均放缓。预期旅游业在09年面对挑战，但公司的收入将受到$41m最低租金收入的保障。

MapletreeLog 丰树物流信托(M44U)
周息率：12.3%，本比益：7.1，闭市价：新币0.59，净资产 : 新币0.90。
投资于物流产业。截至09年3月，投资组合包含81个产业，均保持99%的租用率。1Q09营业额和盈利均取得增长，主要因在去年收购了9个产业。将聚焦于把回报率最大化。20%的租约将于09年满期，大部份相关产业位于新加坡和香港。

LippoMapleT 力宝-丰树印尼零售信托(D5IU)
周息率：15.8%，本比益：--，闭市价：新币0.355，净资产 : 新币0.727。
在印尼投资零售产业的房地产投资信托。公司是一个成立已久的房地产投资信托，它在印尼拥有和投资于可带来收入的零售房地产。初步组合包含7个零售商场及位于其他零售商场的7个零售店面。保荐人PT.Lippo Karawaci Tbk是印尼最大的上市产业公司。后者给予公司印尼零售产业的优先购买权。19/11/07上市，每股$0.80。1Q09录得$18.7m营业额。但营业额季比下跌，主要因前庭空间的租金下降，由于公司从包租租赁转向直接租给不定期的散户租户。09年的前景因零售空间需求将会下滑而充满挑战。将与租户紧密合作，以推动人潮和销售来维持高租用率。

MacCooklReit 麦卡特库克工业房地产(BU5U)
周息率：25.9%，本比益：--，闭市价：新币0.345，净资产 : 新币1.09。
专注于新加坡和亚洲的工业地产投资信托。09年4月，穆迪投资服务(MIS)把公司评级下调至B2。另外，公司为其20个新加坡产业征求独立重估。截至31/03/09的产业总值跌至$500.9m。09年1月，MIS把公司评级下调至B1。19/04/07上市，每股$1.20。9M09营业额飙升76.8%至$37m，因收购9个新产业。未来12个月将充满挑战，但租金将受自然增长和焦点资产管理策略所支持。

AscottREIT 雅诗阁公寓信托(A68U)
周息率：12.8%，本比益：--，闭市价：新币0.69，净资产 : 新币1.51。
服务公寓房地产投资信托。随着在2Q08完成以28.5m澳元收购服务公寓SSGT，公司共拥有37个产业。31/03/06上市，每股$0.68。1Q09盈利几乎翻倍，因获外汇收益及金融衍生品的合理值改变。因新加坡及中国服务公寓的需求下降而录得较少收入。全球金融动荡将导致世界经济放缓，但料公司依旧有利可图。

K-REIT K信托亚洲(K71U)
周息率：13%，本比益：23.8，闭市价：新币1.00，净资产 : 新币2.22。
资于一组优质房地产及房地产相关的资产。截至31/03/09，公司组合取得95.8%的确定租用率。1Q09盈利在收入增加下提高。营业额提高因新租约和续约的租金均提高。尽管环境充满挑战，但公司的组合享有租金上调空间及租户的行业多元化。展望未来，公司将专注于保留租户，并提高营运效率。

First REIT 先锋医疗产业信托(AW9U)
周息率：12.2%，本比益：7.4，闭市价：新币0.625，净资产 : 新币0.93。
新加坡房地产投资信托，投资于可产生收益的亚洲医疗保健产业。公司的债务与产业估值比保持在相当低的15.6%，让它有再作出收购的空间。将继续有选择地作出收购，以确保投资组合包含的都是高质素的保健业资产。1Q09收入和盈利均保持不变。公司预期不会受经济局势影响，因其结构受长期租约所支撑。公司对保健需求可保持平稳及取得令人满意的表现感乐观。

新加坡ＲＥＩＴ的ＤＹ真的很强一下

这几天一直都在研究新加坡的房产信托，发现其房产真的很国际化，同时ＤＹ也真的很高一下，不信看看下面几个新加坡房产信托的ＤＹ。

saizen reit :27%
suntec reit :19.8%
ascott reit :18.9&
cdl htrust :19.1%
cambridge :16.7%
starhill gbl :15.7%
maple tree :16.5%

相比之下，大马的房产信托的ＤＹ就低得多，大马房产信托的ＤＹ大都没有超过10巴仙，预料在很短的时间内，就会把大马投资转向新加坡投资。